Evikini elidlule, imithwalo yamabhokisi esuka e-Asia iya e-United States naseYurophu ifinyelele irekhodi eliphezulu.Ezinkampanini esezizongena enkathini ephezulu yokwakhiwa kabusha kwempahla, izindleko zokuhamba zizoqhubeka ziphezulu.

Ngokusho kwe-Drewry World Container Index ekhishwe ngoLwesine, izinga lomthwalo webhokisi elingamamitha angu-40 ukusuka eShanghai liya eLos Angeles likhuphuke laqopha ama-US$9,733, okuwukunyuka okungu-1% kusukela ngesonto eledlule kanye nokwenyuka ngo-236% kusukela ngonyaka odlule. .Izinga lempahla elisuka e-Shanghai liya e-Rotterdam likhuphuke lafinyelela ku-US$12,954, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-1% kusukela ngesonto eledlule kanye nokwenyuka ngo-595% kunonyaka odlule.Inkomba eyinhlanganisela ekhombisa imizila emikhulu yezohwebo eyisishiyagalombili ifinyelele ku-US$8,883, okuyinani elikhuphuke ngo-339% kusukela onyakeni odlule.

Esinye sezizathu zokuthi imakethe iqine ukushoda okuqhubekayo kwamabhokisi athwala izimpahla zaseMelika ezivela kwamanye amazwe emzileni omatasa odlula iPacific.Impahla efakwe emabhokisini itheleka esangweni elikhulu lokuhweba olwandle laseMelika elinomthamo ophindwe kahlanu wamabhokisi agcwele izimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe.

Engxoxweni nabatshalizimali, usihlalo kanye no-CEO we-Haverty Furniture, indlunkulu e-Atlanta, wathi: “Namuhla, ukusilela emuva kweziqukathi, imikhiqizo, ukuthunyelwa, njll., nanoma yimiphi yale mikhiqizo ibambezelekile. Konke lokhu kubi Kakhulu. "Uthe emhlanganweni wabatshalizimali kuleli sonto.

Ebuzwa ukuthi le nkinga yokuhlinzekwa kwezidingongqangi kulindeleke ukuthi ithathe isikhathi esingakanani, uSmith uthe: “Kuthiwa inkinga ye-supply chain izoqhubeka kuze kube unyaka ozayo, angiboni ukuthi isimo sizoba ngcono kulo nyaka mhlawumbe sizoba ngcono. kufanele ukhokhe imali eyengeziwe ukuze uthole isiqukathi nendawo. ."

Itheku lisagcwele isiminyaminya futhi liya libheda

Ichweba lase-Los Angeles lithe ngoLwesithathu inani eliphelele lama-container alayishwe ngo-June lalingu-467763 TEU, kuyilapho umthamo wokuthekelisa wehla wafinyelela ku-96067 TEU-izinga eliphansi kakhulu kusukela ngo-2005. Echwebeni laseLong Beach, ukuthengwa kwempahla ngaphandle kwenyanga edlule kukhuphuke ngo-18.8 % kuya ku-357,101 TEU, lapho ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe kwehle ngo-0.5% kuya ku-116,947 TEU.Isamba sokungeniswa kwamanye amazwe kwala machweba amabili ngenyanga edlule sikhuphuke ngo-13.3% uma kuqhathaniswa nenyanga efanayo ngo-2019.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, ngokusho kwezikhulu eziqaphe ukuhamba kwemikhumbi echwebeni, kusukela ngoLwesithathu ebusuku, isibalo semikhumbi yamakhonteyna amisiwe ebilinde ukuthululwa eLong Beach eLos Angeles besingu-18. yemikhumbi engaba ngu-40 ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari.

UGene Seroka, umqondisi omkhulu wePort of Los Angeles, uthe esithangamini sabezindaba ukuthi isidingo semikhiqizo ethengwayo sibukeka sizozinza kuze kuphele unyaka.USeroka uthe: "Imfashini yasekwindla, izimpahla zokubuyela esikoleni kanye nezimpahla ze-Halloween zifika ezikhumulweni zethu, futhi abathengisi abathile bathumele imikhiqizo yamaholide okuphela konyaka ngaphambi kwesikhathi esimisiwe.""Zonke izimpawu zikhomba isiwombe sesibili esiqinile."

UMario Cordero, umqondisi omkhulu weLong Beach, uthe yize ichweba lilindele ukuthi i-e-commerce ikhuthaze ukuthuthwa kwempahla kule ngxenye esele ka-2021, umthamo wezimpahla ungafinyelela phezulu.U-Cordero uthe: "Njengoba umnotho uqhubeka nokuvuleka kanye nezinsizakalo ziba ziningi, uJuni ubonisa ukuthi isidingo sabathengi sezimpahla sizozinza kancane kancane."

Uhlolojikelele lwemakethe yamazwe ngamazwe engxenyeni yokuqala yonyaka lungafingqwa ngale ndlela elandelayo:

1. Ukwanda okuphawulekayo kwesidingo sezokuthutha

Ngokombiko wekota yesibili kaClarkson, izinga lokukhula komthamo wokuthuthwa kweziqukathi zomhlaba wonke ngo-2021 lilinganiselwa ku-6.0%, futhi kulindeleke ukuthi lifinyelele ku-206 million TEU!

2. Ijubane lemikhumbi emisha engena emakethe lahlala lizinzile, futhi imikhumbi emikhulu yaqhubeka nokuthuthuka.

Ngokwezibalo zikaClarkson, kusukela ngoMeyi 1, inani lemikhumbi yomhlaba wonke yamabhokisi agcwele laliyi-5,426, 24.24 million TEU.

3. Ukuqashwa kwemikhumbi kuyaqhubeka nokukhuphuka

Isidingo sokuqashisa imikhumbi sikhule kancane kancane, futhi abanye abanikazi bempahla nabo babambe iqhaza emisebenzini yokuqashisa.Izinga lokuqasha ezimakethe liye lenyuka kancane kancane futhi lafinyelela ezingeni eliphezulu phakathi nonyaka.

Imakethe yamazwe ngamazwe kulindeleke ukuthi ibonise izici ezilandelayo engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka:

1. I-rebound yezomnotho ikhuthaza ukwanda kwesidingo semikhumbi.Ngokwesibikezelo sikaClarkson, isidingo somkhumbi womhlaba wonke sizokhuphuka ngo-6.1% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2021.

2. Isilinganiso somthamo wezokuthutha siyaqhubeka nokukhula ngosayizi.

3. Esimeni sokuqhubeka nokuba nomthelela wobhubhane ngo-2021, ukusebenza kahle kwemakethe yemikhumbi yomhlaba kuzoncipha kakhulu.

4. Ukugxilwa kwemboni ngokuvamile kuzinzile.

Indlela yokusebenza komfelandawonye igweme imboni ekuqhudelaneni ngesabelo semakethe ngokuncintisana kwamanani aqinile nokugcina uzinzo ezimakethe ngesikhathi sodlame.

I-Outlook yemakethe yaseShayina engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka:

1. Isidingo sezokuthutha kulindeleke ukuthi siqhubeke nokuba ngcono.

2. Ukushintshashintsha kwezinga lempahla kungase kwenyuke.Lolu bhubhane luyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela emakethe yemikhumbi, uhlelo lwe-supply chain luyaphazamiseka, ukusebenza kahle kokusebenza kwechweba kuncishiswe kakhulu, futhi ukuhlinzekwa kwamandla okuthutha kusesimweni esiqinile.

Izindlela zaseNyakatho Melika

Ngenxa yokungaphenduli kahle, isibalo samacala aqinisekisiwe nokufa kwegciwane lomqhele omusha e-United States sifika kuqala emhlabeni.Nakuba i-United States itshale isamba esikhulu semali ukuze igcine ukuchuma kwezimakethe ezinkulu, ayikwazi ukukufihla ukusimama komnotho wangempela.Inani langempela labantu abangasebenzi lidlula kude lelo langaphambi kwalolu bhubhane.Ngokuzayo, umnotho wase-US maningi amathuba okuba uphume enkingeni yezezimali.

Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukungezwani okuqhubekayo kwezohwebo kwe-Sino-US nakho kungase kube nomthelela omkhulu ekuhwebeni kwe-Sino-US.Njengamanje, i-United States ikhiphe inani elikhulu lezinzuzo zokungasebenzi, okukhuthaze inani elikhulu lesidingo esikhathini esifushane.Kulindeleke ukuthi isidingo sokuhlanganiswa kwe-China sokuthumela ngaphandle kwe-United States sihlale siphezulu isikhathi esithile, kodwa sibhekene nokungaqiniseki okukhulu.

Ngokwezibalo ze-Alphaliner, phakathi kwemikhumbi emisha ehlelelwe ukulethwa ngo-2021, kunemikhumbi engu-19 engu-10000～15199TEU enama-TEU angu-227,000, okuwukunyuka konyaka ngo-168.0%.Lolu bhubhane ludale ukushoda kwabasebenzi, kwehle kakhulu ukusebenza kahle kwechweba, futhi inqwaba yamabhokisi avaleleke echwebeni.

Ngokukhula kokutshalwa kwezimali kumishini yamabhokisi kanye nokubuyiselwa kwamandla amasha, kulindeleke ukuthi ukushoda kwamanje kweziqukathi ezingenalutho kanye nomthamo omningi kuzodamba.Engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka, uma ubhubhane lwase-US luzinza kancane kancane, ukuthunyelwa kweChina e-US kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale kuzinzile, kodwa kuzoba nobunzima obuthile uma beqhubeka nokukhula kakhulu.Ubudlelwano bokuhlinzeka nesidingo semizila yaseNyakatho Melika buzobuyela ebhalansini, futhi amanani ezimpahla ezimakethe kulindeleke ukuthi abuye esuka kumazinga aphezulu omlando aye emazingeni avamile.

Umzila we-Europe-to-land

Ngo-2020, lolu bhubhane lwaqubuka ekuqaleni kweYurophu futhi lwahlala isikhathi eside.Kamuva, ngenxa yokugqashuka kohlobo lwe-mutant delta, umnotho waseYurophu washayeka kakhulu.

Ukungena ku-2021, yize lolu bhubhane luqhubeka nokusabalala eYurophu, umnotho waseYurophu ukhombise ukuqina okuhle.Ngokuhambisana nohlelo olungakaze lube khona lokuvuselela umnotho we-EU olwamukelwa isifunda se-EU, lubambe iqhaza elisekelayo ekuvuseleleni umnotho wase-Europe emthelela walolu bhubhane.Sekukonke, ngokuncipha kancane kancane kwalolu bhubhane, isidingo saseChina sokuhlanganiswa kwe-Europe yokuthunyelwa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe siyathuthuka, futhi ubudlelwano bokuhlinzekwa kwemakethe nokufunwa buzinzile.

Ngokwesibikezelo sika-Drewry, isidingo sezinto zokuhamba eziya ngasentshonalanga eNyakatho Ntshonalanga Yurophu naseNyakatho Melika sizoba cishe izigidi eziyi-10.414 ze-TEU ngo-2021, okuwukukhula konyaka ngo-2.0%, futhi izinga lokukhula lizokhuphuka ngamaphesenti angu-6.8 ukusuka ngo-2020.

Ngenxa yomthelela walolu bhubhane, ukusebenza kahle kwezinto zokuhamba kwehliswe kakhulu, kanti ezinye iziqukathi zivaleleke emachwebeni, futhi imakethe ikhombise isimo sezindawo zokuthumela eziqinile.

Mayelana nomthamo, umthamo jikelele wemakethe okwamanje usezingeni eliphezulu.Phakathi nalolu bhubhane, ukukhula kwamandla bekuhamba kancane.Kodwa-ke, umthamo omusha uzoba yimikhumbi emikhulu, ezotshalwa kakhulu emizileni emikhulu ukuze kunciphe ngokwengxenye ukushoda kwamandla.Ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, lapho imakethe yokuthumela amakhonteyina ilulama emthelela walolu bhubhane, imakethe izobuyela ebhalansi yokuhlinzeka nokufunwa.

Umzila osenyakatho-seNingizimu

Ngo-2021, lolu bhubhane luzoqhubeka nokusabalala emhlabeni wonke.Amazwe atshale imali eningi ukuze akhuphule amanani entengo yempahla, futhi amanani entengo yempahla eningi akhuphukele emazingeni ngaphambi kokuqubuka kwenkinga yezimali emhlabeni wonke ngo-2008, edambisa kancane ubunzima bamazwe athumela izinsiza kwamanye amazwe.

Kodwa-ke, ngenxa yokuthi amazwe amaningi athumela izinsiza kwamanye amazwe ngamazwe asathuthuka, uhlelo lwezempilo lomphakathi lubuthakathaka, futhi kunokuntuleka kwemithi yokugoma yokulawula ubhubhane.Izifo eziwubhubhane eBrazil, Russia nakwamanye amazwe zimbi kakhulu, futhi umnotho uwonke ube nomthelela omkhulu.Ngasikhathi sinye, ubhubhane olunzima luye lwavusa isidingo sezidingo zansuku zonke kanye nempahla yezokwelapha.

Ngokwesibikezelo sikaClarkson, ngo-2021, isidingo sokuthunyelwa kwamabhokisi emizileni yaseLatin America, emizileni yase-Afrika kanye nase-Oceania sizokhuphuka ngo-7.1%, 5.4% no-3.7% unyaka nonyaka, ngokulandelana, futhi izinga lokukhula lizokwenyuka 8.3, 7.1 kanye namaphesenti angu-3.5 ngokulandelanayo uma kuqhathaniswa nowezi-2020.

Sekukonke, isidingo sezokuthutha emzileni osenyakatho-eningizimu sizoqala ngo-2021, futhi ubhubhane lwehlise ukusebenza kahle kohlelo lokuhlinzeka futhi lwaqinisa ukuhlinzekwa kwamandla ezokuthutha.

Imakethe yomzila osuka enyakatho neningizimu isekelwa isidingo sezokuthutha esikhathini esifushane, kodwa uma isimo sobhubhane emazweni afanele singalawulwa ngempumelelo, sizofaka ingcindezi kumkhuba wemakethe esikhathini eside.

Umzila waseJapan

Ngemuva kokungena ngo-2021, ubhubhane eJapan luphinde lwaphinde lwadlula futhi lwadlula inani eliphakeme lalolu bhubhane ngo-2020, ukuze ama-Olimpiki e-Tokyo abanjwe ngendlela yokuthi izethameli zingavunyelwe ukungena enkundleni.Isamba esikhulu sezimali esitshalwe kuma-Olympics singase sibhekane nokulahlekelwa okukhulu.

Lolu bhubhane seluphinde lwahlasela umnotho waseJapan osuvele untekenteke, kuhambisana nezinkinga zesakhiwo ezikhulayo ezifana nokuguga kwabantu, ukukhula komnotho waseJapan akunawo umfutho esimweni sesikweletu esikhulu.

Isidingo sezokuthutha sokuthunyelwa kwe-China emizileni yase-Japan ngokuvamile sizinzile.Ngaphezu kwalokho, izinkampani zamalayini ezisebenzisa imizila yaseJapane zenze iphethini yebhizinisi elizinzile iminyaka eminingi, zigwema ukuncintisana okunonya kwesabelo semakethe, futhi isimo semakethe sihlala sizinzile.

Imizila engaphakathi kwe-Asia

Amazwe ase-Asia anokulawulwa kahle kwalolu bhubhane azobhekana nesifo esibi kakhulu ngo-2021, futhi amazwe anjenge-India abangele ukuthi lolu bhubhane lungalawuleki ngenxa yohlobo lwe-delta mutant.

Njengoba amazwe ase-Asia ngokuyinhloko engamazwe asathuthuka, izimiso zezempilo nezokwelapha zibuthakathaka, futhi umqedazwe uye waphazamisa uhwebo, ukutshalwa kwezimali, nokuhamba kwabantu.Ukuthi ubhubhane lungalawuleka ngempumelelo yini kuzoba yisici esiyinhloko esinquma ukuthi umnotho wase-Asia ungasimama yini uphinde ubuyele emuva esikhathini esizayo.

Ngokwesibikezelo sikaClarkson, ngo-2021, isidingo semikhumbi yesifunda sase-Asia sizoba cishe izigidi ezingama-63.2 ze-TEU, okuwukunyuka ngo-6.4% unyaka nonyaka.Isidingo sezokuthutha sizinzile futhi siphindaphindeka, futhi umthamo wokuthutha emigwaqweni yemikhumbi uzompintsha kancane.Kodwa-ke, lolu bhubhane lungabangela ukungaqiniseki okukhulu ngesidingo sezokuthutha esizayo., Izinga lempahla emakethe lingashintshashintsha kakhulu.